CDC Chief: Bird Flu Could Become Epidemic
Mon
Feb 21, 1:03 PM
By PAUL RECER, AP Science Writer
WASHINGTON - The Earth may be on the brink of a worldwide epidemic
from a bird flu virus that may mutate to become as deadly and
infectious as viruses that killed millions during three influenza
pandemics of the 20th century, a federal health official said
Monday.
Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, said scientists expect that a flu virus that
has swept through chickens and other poultry in Asia will genetically
change into a flu that can be transmitted from person to person.
The genes of the avian flu change rapidly, she said, and experts
believe it is highly likely that the virus will evolve into a
pathogen deadly for humans.
She made the remarks in a plenary lecture at the national meeting
of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
In Asia, there have already been a number of deaths among people
who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality
rate is very high _ about 72 percent of identified patients, said
Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain
of flu being transferred from person-to-person, but the outbreak
was not sustained, she said.
Read the Article: Will You Survive The Next Killer Flu?
"We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks
because this is high season for avian influenza in that part
of the world," said Gerberding. Although cases of human-to-human
transmission have been rare, "our assessment is that this
is a very high threat."
This assessment, she said, is based on the known history of
the flu virus.
The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called
the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious
in human history.
"Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience
a pandemic of influenza," said Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared
and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2,
and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3.
There had been small appearances of the H1-type of avian viruses
in other years, but nothing like the H5 now rampaging through
the birds of Asia.
"We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza
virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire
western component of Asia," she said. "The reason this
is so ominous is because of the evolution of flu.... You may
see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population
has no immunity."
Study already has shown that the
virus can infect cats who can then infect other cats, which
Gerberding said was "another
harbinger" of the possibility of a human pandemic.
"The science here is all alerting us that we have a great
deal to be concerned about," she said.
The CDC chief said her agency is getting ready for a possible
pandemic next year.
A special flu team, organized last year, continues to monitor
the spread of the avian flu and to analyze the strains as they
appear.
The government has ordered 2 million doses of vaccine that would
protect against the known strains of avian flu. Gerberding said
this would give manufacturers a head start on making the shots
that would be needed to combat a full-blown epidemic of an H1-type
of flu in this country.
CDC is also plugged into an international communication and
monitoring system that, it is hoped, will give an early warning
of the emergence of a deadly new flu.
But at the same time, the agency is helping to produce the 180
million or so doses of regular flu that are needed annually.
Gerberding said the timeline for producing the regular vaccine
yearly is very tight, with little room for problems. To produce
a new vaccine in response to the sudden emergence of an H1-flu
bug would require an extraordinary new effort, she said.
"We don't now have the capacity to do both," said
Gerberding.
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