Renowned Bird Flu Expert Warns: Be Prepared
There
Are "About Even Odds"
That
the Virus Could Mutate to an Easily Transmitted Form
March 14, 2006 — Robert G.
Webster is one of the few bird flu experts confident enough
to answer the key question: Will
the avian flu switch from posing a terrible hazard to birds to
becoming a real threat to humans?
There are "about even odds at this time for the virus to
learn how to transmit human to human," he told ABC's "World
News Tonight." Webster, the Rosemary Thomas Chair at St.
Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., is credited
with being the first scientist to find the link between human
flu and bird flu.
Webster and his team of scientists are working to find a way
to beat the virus if it morphs. He has even been dubbed the Flu
Hunter.
Right now, H5N1, a type of avian influenza virus, has confined
itself to birds. It can be transmitted from bird to human but
only by direct contact with the droppings and excretions of infected
birds.
But viruses mutate, and the big fear among the world's scientists
is that the bird flu virus will join the human flu virus, change
its genetic code and emerge as a new and deadly flu that can
spread through the air from human to human.
If the virus does mutate, it does not necessarily mean it will
be as deadly to people as it is to birds. But experts such
as Webster say they must prepare for the worst.
"
I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations," said
Webster, who has stored a three-month supply of food and water
at his home in case of an outbreak.
Frightening Warning
"Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of
the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility," Webster
said. "I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened,
but I feel it's my role."
Most scientists won't put it that bluntly, but many acknowledge
that Webster could be right about the flu becoming transmissible
among humans, even though they believe the 50 percent figure
could be too high.
Researcher Dr. Anne Moscona at New
York Weill Cornell Medical Center said that a human form may
not mutate this year or next — or
ever — but it would be foolish to ignore the dire consequences
if it did.
"If bird flu becomes not bird flu but mutates into a form
that can be transmitted between humans, we could then have a
spread like wildfire across the globe," Moscona said.
No one knows how long or how many mutation changes it would
take for bird flu to become a direct threat to humans.
"It may not do it. There may just be too many changes.
The virus may not be able to be a human virus," Moscona
said.
But that hasn't stopped Moscona from searching for new types
of anti-viral treatments that both prevent and slow the spread
of bird flu.
"I don't think that once we have human-to-human transmission,
it's going to be possible to contain it," she said.
That is why nearly every viral scientist in America, perhaps
the world, is waiting and watching the avian flu virus to see
if it remains just a threat to birds or changes its genetic code
and becomes a deadly threat to humans as well.
By JIM AVILA and MEREDITH RAMSEY
For
more information on any of 4Life’s™ products, please
feel free to contact us. Use your back button to return
to the homepage or newsletter that contains our contact information.
If you have any questions or need assistance with ordering,
we are pleased to help you in any way we can.
